Context : OnEnergy
Depletion rate will make the difference : http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/24/161535/296
I've just read this BBC piece on the recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference:
.. which is rather alarming.
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency is quoted as saying:
If Saudi does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be very difficult. We will have difficult times. They must invest.
.... the BBC report goes on:
Asking other delegates - admittedly supporters of the peak oil theory - whether such a steep increase was feasible, the answers were unambiguous: "absolutely out of the question," "completely impossible," and "3 million barrels - never, not even 300,000."
One delegate laughed so hard he had to support himself on a table.
..... and this is talk of what happens at the end of THIS YEAR ! .... and finally:
And Dr Campbell has a dire warning: "If the real figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets, in the end that would suit no one."
... so the experts think cheap oil ends this year !! Wow we're so fucked ... I may (selfishly) take a whole bunch of long haul holidays soon .. go see the world while it's still cheap enough to do so for pleasure !
Many of the cars in Brazil (including ours) use alcohol rather than petrol. (AlcoholAsFuel) But the price fluctuates depending on how the weather affects the sugar-cane harvest. (This year it's up.) I wonder how fast that could be ramped up to cover ordinary car use (which of course ignores electricity generation, plastics(!!), and industrial use.)
Plus we're going to get NuclearEnergy, I'm pretty sure, now.
When did Saudi Arabia become Saudi? About the same time as Orange County became The OC?
Via BillSeitz :
- Reorganizing the economy around it : http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfucknation/2004/07/theoptimists_r.html
- Marshall Brain thinks it's a non-event : http://marshallbrain.blogspot.com/2005/06/peak-oil-will-be-non-event.html,
Since this page got bounced up recent-changes can I recommend JaredDiamond's book Collapse for a fascinating read on collapse/rise-and-fall of once great ancient civilisations, which get's really interesting after about 300 odd pages when the civilisations are the modern ones. Described as the "half-empty" view of the glass, it makes a good read, along with TheLastDaysOfAncientSunlight – kk