Instead of making forecasts about what will happen. Try to imagine multiple possible scenarios and have a plan for each of these.
Shell do a lot of it. I wonder if the EndOfCheapOil is one? http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal-en&FC1=&FC2=%2FLeftHandNav%3FLeftNavState%3D1%2C2&FC3=%2Froyal-en%2Fhtml%2Fiwgen%2Four_strategy%2Fscenarios%2Fscenarios_home.html&FC4=&FC5=
Doesn't look like it :-) No catastrophes considered here. That's alright then.
Consider in the context of TheLogicOfTheFuture
- Strategy as a portfolio of experiments : http://hbswk.hbs.edu/archive/5387.html