PredictionMarkets

ThoughtStorms Wiki

Context : OnMarkets, Futurology

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market
Yeah! FreeSoftware toolkit : http://zocalo.sourceforge.net/

PredictionMarketsForPoliticalDebate

Can be gamed if they are small : https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1044

Examples

Metaculus
PolyMarket : https://polymarket.com/
AtrocityCasino for predictive markets applied to terrorism
- PredictionMarketsAndUkraineWar2022
http://www.intrade.com/
https://blog.coinfabrik.com/blockchain-mediated-prediction-markets/

Conditions for a prediction market to work :

The terms of the wager must be stated with great specificity so there will be no ambiguity.
The participants must have some knowledge of the field. For example, Joe Grundfest of the Stanford Law School has pointed out the futility of a market to predict the veracity of "StringTheory"
The bet must pay off well enough to make it worth investing one's time and revealing one's true opinion.

This third reminds me of the HandicapPrinciple (in it's proper form, not my somewhat ironic appropriation for explaining unnecessary effort). For a signal to be truthful (ie. for it to be not worth-while faking it) there has to be some cost to the signaller. (This is pretty over-simplified. Look it up from the first link on the HandicapPrinciple page)

Examples

for SocialSoftware : http://www.meta-markets.com/
Innovation Futures : http://innovationfutures.com/bk/index.html

NewsFutures provides the software : http://us.newsfutures.com/

AtrocityCasino for predictive markets applied to terrorism

BlogShares is a market for shares in weblogs.

Blogs

Contrast :

ScenarioPlanning