Seems to be cancelled.

Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," [The Pentagon] said in a statement.


  • I'd be interested in seeing the blogosphere's reaction. For example, a Technorati style search, WordBurst analysis etc. might be able to agregate opinions and make better predictions.
  • What about market irrationalities such as booms and busts. Won't we see a lot of me-too followers?
  • What if people start hiring gangsters to make terrorist events happen?

This article defends the idea and claims it would be hard to influence and not a big incentive to go out and do terrorism :