AtrocityCasino

Seems to be cancelled.

• FutureMap : http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm

• BBC story : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3106559.stm

Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information," [The Pentagon] said in a statement.

Thoughts

• I'd be interested in seeing the blogosphere's reaction. For example, a Technorati style search, WordBurst analysis etc. might be able to agregate opinions and make better predictions.

• What about market irrationalities such as booms and busts. Won't we see a lot of me-too followers?

• What if people start hiring gangsters to make terrorist events happen?

This article defends the idea and claims it would be hard to influence and not a big incentive to go out and do terrorism : http://dpennock.com/pam.html

See also :

• PredictionMarkets / AgoricSystems
• BazaarOfViolence
• OnMarkets in general