Metaculus

Context : PredictionMarkets

A new active prediction market I just found.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/

Not quite like a prediction market in that you don't seem to have a limited amount of "money" to bet. (In fact you start immediately by going negative with your "points")

Essay on mission of Metaculus : https://metaculus.medium.com/forecasting-science-and-epistemology-d962de541a1f

At Metaculus, our mission is to build epistemic infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges.

May 2023 : How's it doing on AI? https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/16708/exploring-metaculuss-ai-track-record/

Forecasting, Science, and Epistemology : https://metaculus.medium.com/forecasting-science-and-epistemology-d962de541a1f

(More OnScience)