YevgenyPrigozhin

ThoughtStorms Wiki

Backer / leader of WagnerGroup of Russian mercenaries. Increasingly critical of Russian army leadership in RussianInvasionOfUkraine2022.

In mid-June 2023, it almost looked like his forces were falling into fighting the Russian army, both in Ukraine AND in bordering parts of Russia. Some speculated he would mount a coup against VladimirPutin.

As of writing (24/06/2023) some sort of cease-fire / deal has been brokered. Given the kind of HyperNormalization theatre that Putin likes to engage with this could be anything from real, to a reshuffling of power (with Prigozhin being given more direct influence over the Russian military strategy), to complete fiction.

Now back in Russia? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/06/wagner-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-alexander-lukashenko-belarus

Meanwhile, Putin took control of his TrollFarms : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/05/putin-takes-on-yevgeny-prigozhin-business-empire

PaulMason thinks it's theatre :

Since there are multiple factions within the security elite of Russia, the outcome of that coup is hard to predict. But the likely outcome would be a stronger regime, with Putin now under the control of populist, ethno-nationalist hardliners, and with a valid excuse to cut its losses in Ukraine.
So just as in professional wrestling, we are seeing multiple levels of real, fake and choreography — “kayfabe” in the parlance.

https://htsf.substack.com/p/the-kayfabe-coup-is-under-way

Ironically ...

Re: PredictionMarketsAndUkraineWar2022

A couple of weeks ago I submitted a question to Metaculus about whether Yevgeny Prigozhin would be president of Russia by 2030. It was pushed back for more detail and I was too lazy to fix it. 🤦

Is it still worth trying to fix and submit?