I need an index of various models people use to reason about the dynamics of social systems, and therefore the future. This is it.
Most of these are models based on conflicts between socialogical forces ie. ideas and classes. In some cases eg. Brin's "memes" it seems possible to separate the ideas from the people. In more traditionally "Marxist" models the ideas must be embedded in the economic reality of actual groups.
Remember, these models are in co-opetition. They may be rivals, offering different explanations and predictions. Or they may occasionally supplement each other.
Here's the list :
- And Brin now has a blog where he discusses various logics of the future : http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2005/06/networks-and-netwar.html
Contrast non-social logics.
See also :
There are now several wikis about the future :
- WikiCities : (Not http://future.wikicities.com/wiki/Main_Page (Not much fun though, bit too much in the WikiMedia dictionary style)
- LionKimbro's : (focused http://futures.wiki.taoriver.net/ (focused on technology)
- WikiPedia timeline : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelineofthefuturein_forecasts