WhenProphecyFails (ThoughtStorms)

Hmmm. No connection between Iraq and AlQuaeda. No WMDs. Neocon attempts to remodel the middle-east cratering horribly?

I'm starting to get a bad feeling about this ...


"The administration's statements rest on a solid foundation of history and facts. The record of links between Iraq and al Qaeda is clear to anyone who has open eyes and an open mind," a White House official said on Wednesday.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=FHGHPQCG3SLSACRBAEOCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=5442262

All of this might be seen as a major embarrassment for any other government, an issue seized on by the opposition. Not here in the United States, though ... (the American public) believed Mr Bush's wider assertion that this was part of the global War on Terror. In other words, the best way for America to respond to 9/11 was by a bold exercise of force. That is what the hawks in the administration believe, as well. And that is why these latest arguments about the reason for going to war are much less damaging, than the criticism that the administration has not waged it vigorously enough.


When Prophecy Fails focuses on the failure of prophecies to come true, termed disconfirmation by Festinger, and the accompanied renewal of energy and faith in their source of divine guidance. His theory presupposes the cult having certain identifying features, such as: (a) belief held with deep conviction along with respective actions taken, (b) the belief or prediction must be specific enough to be disconfirmed (i.e., it didn't happen), (c) the believer is a member of a group of like-minded believers who support one another and even proselytize.

What about FreeSoftware movement? The only differece in this case is that in the end the enforced support might fulfill the prophecy in itself. This might as well explain the social mechanism of this phenomenon - it might be usefull sometimes. -- ZbigniewLukasiak

It's a good point. But I guess the question is in what sense FreeSoftware failed? Some predictions about defeating MicroSoft probably weren't born out, but I wouldn't call FreeSoftware a failed prophecy.

-- PhilJones

In some sense software allways fails - we see how great it works in some cases and we imagine that it will work so smoothly in all other cases, but in realization it allways fails to that promise. It might be a good explanation of the flamewars: Linux versus MS, vi and emacs, C and Java and Perl and Python and .. -- ZbigniewLukasiak

Ok. That, I accept 100%.

-- PhilJones

The question now is how can we use that knowlege to resolve flamewars. Is there a way out of the vicious circle of failure reinforcing the proselitizing?

-- ZbigniewLukasiak


Contrast :


See also :