I don't like this at all, but I respect EricRaymond enough to listen to what he says in "Demographics and the Dustbin of History".

Disturbing : http://armedndangerous.blogspot.com/20021201armedndangerousarchive.html#85370632

Something in this direction : http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/philg/2004/06/15#a5099

The comments are good.

Economic trends against Europe :


I can muster some counter-arguments though.

  • as more and more of the population become wards of the state, a larger percentage of the able will be occupied simply with running the income-redistribution system. I don't know if this is proven. It's possible that a rise in redistribution (or welfare) productivity could offset the effect.
  • Europe could see sense about immigration, and suppliment the population with immigrants
  • "Europe's disinterest in childbearing is a crisis of confidence and optimism.". Europeans are demonstrating in their behavior that they don't believe the future will be good for children.

: There are certainly other explanations for not having children. For many, children are an insurance ... "who'll look after me in my old age?" Not having kids isn't a sign of pessimism about the future, just a sense of security and optimism that society will provide.

: Of course, this still means that people are basically taking advantage of the common pool of young people created elsewhere. So it is a CommonsProblem. See also TheEndOfInsurance

  • Has Bush alienated the global CreativeClass who are turning back towards Europe etc?