Turchin explains current political warfare as a battle between an overpopulation of elites to some degree exacerbated by a decline in general living standards or immiseration, and financially overextended governments. Initially, Turchin applied the theory to pre-industrial societies, but a decade ago he travelled forward in time, predicting unrest – Ages of Discord – that would intensify in 2020 and endure until reversed ...
“Societies are systems and they tend to change in a somewhat predictable way,” Turchin told the Observer. “We are on the verge of state breakdown where the centre loses hold of society.”
What Peter Turchin is working on in 2022 https://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/what-i-am-working-on/