TheEndOfTheAfghanistanWar

Almost exactly 20 years after NineEleven, the American war on / military mission in Afghanistan has ended in defeat. And the Taliban back in power.

Main points

• TheTaliban have been regaining ground for over 10 years.
• The government in Kabul was largely a creation of and dependent on American military support. Even though the US put a lot of money into training the gov army, there was still a reliance on US air power and other support
• Also the US military kept a distance from the main Afghan population. Taliban launched terrorist attacks on US, often from Afghans posing as supporters or in the army or police. Making it hard for the US to really know who to trust. This made it harder to build close ties and loyalties between US and Afghans in the military
• DonaldTrump signed a deal with the Taliban promising to leave on a fixed date in return for ... very little. Basically just a promise by the Taliban not to attack the US or to harbour those who wanted to
• It seems that the Taliban took this deal to the various regional commanders of the government forces and basically said "you see, the US is abandoning you. Surrender or it will be worse for you".
• When the Americans finally started leaving (under JoeBiden), the US believed that the gov had a chance of defending itself. And was completely caught out by the speed at which gov folded and Afghan army defected
• Apparently there's a tradition in Afghanistan of families sending sons to join both sides in a war, to hedge their bets. A sensible strategy in a place so affected by war. Soldiers' first loyalty is to their families. Once people see which way the wind is blowing, they quickly switch to the winning side
• So final conquest of Kabul (without any real fighting) took only a few days.
• Russia and China also recognised the Taliban

So the entire expedition, 20 years of occupation and investment and attempts to build institutions etc. Wasted.