JohnRobb analyses the next evolution of GlobalGuerrillas

The Global Guerrillas argument was always that terrorism worked as a "bazaar" of independent actors ... many terror attacks were independent "startups" who approached the centres and asked for "investment" to make them happen.

This latest twist - based on the idea that Muslims owe fealty to the Caliphate that the IslamicState has become - is that individual "loan wolves" can assert fealty to the state DURING the terrorist act. The benefits of this are largely psychological / spiritual rather than practical. But the benefit is that there's no need for any direct contact between the Islamic State and the new terrorist before the act. So nothing that counter-terrorism could pick up before hand.

Individuals armed with a gun, a truck or even a knife or axe are now sufficient to terrify and disturb their host populations. (Note that the dynamic is not limited to "foreign" or immigrants. Similar processes inspire white American teenagers to shoot up their schools to "express themselves")

These individuals are "radicalised" (sic) quickly. They do their planning alone, based on general inspiration and examples, not on direct instruction (that could once again be predicted). Recent examples such as Germany show that they may not be considered obvious recruits (as in not obviously abused or unhappy).

Latest examples :