GazaGenocide

Since the HamasAttackOnIsrael2023, Gaza has effectively been razed by the Israeli army.

I'm writing at the point at the beginning of 2025, when it seems like a ceasefire has been reached. Allegedly thanks to some pressure from DonaldTrump

Immediate thoughts

• should we call this a "genocide"? I have friends who dislike the term, but honestly, compare it to many other things which are labelled "genocide" today (which increasingly gets used to mean any major attempt at a displacement of a cultural group, even if people are not killed), and it's hard to see the difference.
• according to Al Jazeira 46,707 Palestinians have been killed.
• this is obviously "collective punishment" of a civilian population, not an attack on military targets with colateral damage.
• according to the outgoing US secretary Antony Blinken, the slaughter has recruited as many people to Hamas (or Hamas-like organizations) as were killed (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-we-assess-that-hamas-has-recruited-almost-as-many-new-fighters-as-it-has-lost/). This was easily predictable, and predicted by critics of Israel. It was never likely that a military attack on Gaza would "eliminate Hamas". And so, even if such a goal were to justify the slaughter of this many civilians (which is not my position), the failure clearly nullifies such a justification.
• will it last? It doesn't commit either party to much at this stage. Both have incentives to take the immediate benefits of the ceasefire (ie. return of hostages) and then return to their previous belligerence. There isn't actually a way to peace until the incentives change. And that can only come now if the outside world, particularly the strongest supporters of Israel in the US and Europe, decide to change those incentives by putting real pressure on its government.
• the failure of, particularly the US government, but also the UK and other European governments, to at least try to curb Israel through stopping weapons and money flows, is a genuine shame for them.
• does Trump deserve credit? It's unlikely he's particularly pro-Palestinian. However, some commentators suggest that because he's less predictable and more "mercurial", Netanyahu can't take him for granted. Therefore when Trump demanded a ceasefire deal, Netanyahu needed to take notice. This smells right to me.
• this is obviously really damning for Biden. Netanyahu could safely ignore everything Biden demanded, safe in the knowledge that the US would never materially try to stop him.
• As for Trump. Whether he commits to forcing peace between Israel and the Palestinians largely depends on what he thinks he gets out of it, how hard it is, and who he can blame if the ceasefire falls apart.
• Western media has been appalling. (MediaOnIsraelAttackOnGaza) It has done much to try to excuse or obscure Israel's genocidal intentions (Which as, OwenJones has documented, were very overtly flagged by Israeli politicians themselves. Drunk on the general RightWingPopulism which has given them power.)