BoundedDistrust

Context : FakeNews, TheEndOfConsensus, OnReputation

Good discussion from SlateStarCodex on how we navigate the infosphere.

tl;dr : we acquire a feel for which kinds of untruths / biases a particular group is likely to engage in, vs those which are likely to be out-of-bounds (because fact-checking is sufficiently easy, or reputational damage too great)

Therefore people who are able to pick up this habit are able to extract useful information from even broken institutions.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust

ZviMowshowitz pushes back somewhat ...

after everything that has happened with the pandemic and also otherwise, I strongly believe that the trust and epistemic commons that existed previously have been burned down. The price of breaking the old rules is lower, but it is more than that. The price of being viewed as actually following the old rules is higher than the cost of not following them, in addition to the local benefits of breaking the old rules. Thus the old rules mostly are not followed.

By "following old rules" he means the kind of reputation landscape SlateStarCodex seems to be hinting at, that keeps most institutions, mostly in line.

Zvi seems to be suggesting the landscape has changed. Or rather (to mix metaphors) he's drilling down to get more detail about its features. Analysing it with GameTheory and trying to pin down specific probabilities.